Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.685842 3.997306 4.339300 4.745879 5.220368 5.762120 6.435667
2025-02-09 3.306845 3.725341 4.216555 4.846987 5.652385 6.673962 8.117037
2025-02-16 3.008896 3.469000 4.031938 4.791471 5.824429 7.240705 9.458444
2025-02-23 2.797885 3.282326 3.894148 4.752930 5.982658 7.786737 10.897548
2025-03-02 2.627908 3.125589 3.770295 4.705140 6.103834 8.283329 12.403608
2025-03-09 2.488050 2.993268 3.661854 4.658804 6.209519 8.764200 14.052290
2025-03-16 2.381533 2.895298 3.588750 4.650422 6.365246 9.353540 16.175865
2025-03-23 2.314612 2.844700 3.575131 4.725396 6.661917 10.261183 19.540276
2025-03-30 2.208639 2.732678 3.464093 4.636571 6.664055 10.598967 21.675629
2025-04-06 2.112846 2.629224 3.357971 4.544482 6.645723 10.888714 23.901753
2025-04-13 2.008331 2.508149 3.218443 4.386346 6.486514 10.839206 25.004158
2025-04-20 1.971232 2.481263 3.217250 4.454251 6.757248 11.830101 30.998604
2025-04-27 1.958123 2.489158 3.270402 4.621034 7.253698 13.565680 43.844941
2025-05-04 1.929247 2.472136 3.283551 4.719739 7.631829 15.173385 62.072840
2025-05-11 1.869681 2.406350 3.215504 4.666677 7.676324 15.837905 76.720483
2025-05-18 1.817877 2.349916 3.159122 4.629795 7.751271 16.639469 99.512802
2025-05-25 1.767874 2.294099 3.100667 4.584049 7.799292 17.383313 131.904194
2025-06-01 1.721422 2.241856 3.045336 4.539682 7.844438 18.151197 184.165176
2025-06-08 1.684838 2.203331 3.010553 4.531654 7.976837 19.336738 316.865294
2025-06-15 1.665142 2.190043 3.016771 4.603440 8.321707 21.649325 1385.057290
2025-06-22 1.618516 2.132996 2.946630 4.518389 8.247409 22.040605 5273.266876
2025-06-29 1.573730 2.077518 2.877030 4.430163 8.154432 22.317425 NaN
2025-07-06 1.519939 2.006490 2.778629 4.278543 7.874985 21.549751 NaN